While it’s been noticed that tornado season has and will be
worse than last year, what about hurricane season? How will the hurricanes be
this summer?
While I was looking for the answers to these questions I
found that most people were basing their information off of the Colorado State
forecasters. Naturally I had to look them up before I read their research to
make sure they were the real deal. Here’s what I found:
“Each December for the last 16 years, Colorado State
University scientists have forecast the following year’s hurricane activity.
And on average, for those 16 years, a forecast of average hurricane activity
each year would have done as well. Nonetheless, the latest forecast — for
above-average hurricane activity next year, with seven Atlantic hurricanes
between June 1 and November 30, and three major hurricanes — was covered by the
Associated Press, Bloomberg and MarketWatch, which, like WSJ.com is owned by
News Corp.
The Colorado State team updates the forecasts several times
before and during the hurricane season, and, as you might expect, the forecasts
tend to get more acurate as the year progresses — though even the later
forecasts have missed badly in the last couple of years, as some of the above
articles noted. The track record is much worse for the December forecast,
though, a point acknowledged by lead forecaster Philip J. Klotzbach in the
group’s latest report: “You always learn more when your seasonal forecast busts
than when it verifies. Busted forecasts drive us to explain the reasons for the
failure and likely lead to enhanced skill in future years.” (If the sports
analogy that started this blog post sounds strained, consider how much Dr.
Klotzbach sounds like a member of a sports team after a tough loss.)
As Dr. Klotzbach explains in the forecast, the Colorado
State team — previously led by professor emeritus William Gray, who still
co-writes the forecasts — has tried three different schemes over the years to
formulate its December forecasts, derived from various climatic factors such as
African rainfall and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Each initially
looked good when “hindcasting” — that is, evaluating the new models based on
how well they would have done had they been used to predict past seasons. But
each failed when put to work forecasting the next year’s hurricane activity.
Dr. Klotzbach attributes that disappointing result to relying on climatic
factors that had no real link to Atlantic hurricane activity — something he
says has changed in the latest forecast.
This time around, Dr. Klotzbach is trying a fourth scheme
that is a hybrid of two other approaches. Of course, if Scheme D fails, it may
also be discarded, though Dr. Klotzbach isn’t setting any deadlines.
Even a more-accurate seasonal forecast is of questionable utility.
AccuWeather.com makes its own seasonal forecasts, and trumpeted in a recent
press release that it beat the Colorado State team and other entrants in
forecasting accuracy this year. Nonetheless, Ken Reeves, AccuWeather.com’s
director of forecasting operations, told me, “We’re not really big fans of the
seasonal number games.” What really matters, he says, is “whether they make
landfall, and how strong they are at landfall.””
--This article thanks to Carl Bialik
Now, whether or not you believe these forecasters are
accurate or not will determine how much you will believe their predictions
below:
“The 2012
hurricane season promises to be less active than normal, and close
to half as active as last year, when 20 tropical cyclones, seven hurricanes and
four major hurricanes were recorded, according to a forecast released today by
the Colorado State University Tropical
Meteorology Project. Forecasters Philip Klotzbach and William Gray
predict the 2012 season, which begins June 1, will have 4 hurricanes, compared
with an average of 6.5 hurricanes between 1981 and 2010, and 10 named storms,
compared with an average of 12.
The forecasters predict that two of the hurricanes will be
major storms, ranked as Category 3 or higher, with winds greater than 111 mph,
which is just about average. But there will only be a total of three days when
hurricanes will have that major storm status, compared with an average of 3.9
days.
The chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the
United States this year is about 80 percent of the average, and the total
tropical cyclone activity will be only 75 percent of the long term average.
"Although that is welcome news for the Gulf Coast, it
certainly is not a signal for us to let our guard down," said Jefferson
Parish President John Young. "Rather, our citizens should continue to make
preparations for the upcoming hurricane season since any major storm can cause
catastrophic property devastation and loss of human life."
In making their forecast, Klotzbach and Gray are only
comparing their predicted storm activity to 29 years of hurricane records. Last
year, the pair compared their predictions against a 50-year storm history from
1950 to 2000.
Under the 50-year scenario, there was an average 9.6 named
storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.
The forecasting duo credit a combination of cooler than
normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and an expected
return to El Nino warmer than normal surface water conditions in the eastern
and central Pacific Ocean for the reduced tropical storm activity.
The lower Atlantic water temperatures make it more difficult
for storms to form, as does higher air pressures in that region that the
forecasters say will occur this summer and fall.
The El Nino conditions historically have prompted greater
wind shear in the upper atmosphere in the Atlantic, which tends to blow the
tops off of thunderstorms, again making it more difficult for hurricanes to
form.
In predicting a return to El Nino conditions in the Pacific,
however, the forecasters are a bit ahead of the official National Weather
Service forecast.
The service's Climate Prediction Center on Monday agreed
that a two-year stretch of La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific,
representing cooler than normal surface water temperatures, has weakened. But
the center's prediction only calls for a change to neutral conditions, neither
cooler nor warmer, by April, with a 40 percent chance of it remaining neutral
through December, compared to a 38 percent chance of turning to warmer El Nino
conditions.”
--This article thanks to Greater New Orleans
I personally think that the forecasters are probably close
in their predictions. They’ve done plenty of research and devote their time to
this. But after all, the weather can be pretty unpredictable so who knows how
the hurricane season will really turn out this year.
