2012 Hurricane Season

While it’s been noticed that tornado season has and will be worse than last year, what about hurricane season? How will the hurricanes be this summer?

While I was looking for the answers to these questions I found that most people were basing their information off of the Colorado State forecasters. Naturally I had to look them up before I read their research to make sure they were the real deal. Here’s what I found:

“Each December for the last 16 years, Colorado State University scientists have forecast the following year’s hurricane activity. And on average, for those 16 years, a forecast of average hurricane activity each year would have done as well. Nonetheless, the latest forecast — for above-average hurricane activity next year, with seven Atlantic hurricanes between June 1 and November 30, and three major hurricanes — was covered by the Associated Press, Bloomberg and MarketWatch, which, like WSJ.com is owned by News Corp.

The Colorado State team updates the forecasts several times before and during the hurricane season, and, as you might expect, the forecasts tend to get more acurate as the year progresses — though even the later forecasts have missed badly in the last couple of years, as some of the above articles noted. The track record is much worse for the December forecast, though, a point acknowledged by lead forecaster Philip J. Klotzbach in the group’s latest report: “You always learn more when your seasonal forecast busts than when it verifies. Busted forecasts drive us to explain the reasons for the failure and likely lead to enhanced skill in future years.” (If the sports analogy that started this blog post sounds strained, consider how much Dr. Klotzbach sounds like a member of a sports team after a tough loss.)

As Dr. Klotzbach explains in the forecast, the Colorado State team — previously led by professor emeritus William Gray, who still co-writes the forecasts — has tried three different schemes over the years to formulate its December forecasts, derived from various climatic factors such as African rainfall and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Each initially looked good when “hindcasting” — that is, evaluating the new models based on how well they would have done had they been used to predict past seasons. But each failed when put to work forecasting the next year’s hurricane activity. Dr. Klotzbach attributes that disappointing result to relying on climatic factors that had no real link to Atlantic hurricane activity — something he says has changed in the latest forecast.

This time around, Dr. Klotzbach is trying a fourth scheme that is a hybrid of two other approaches. Of course, if Scheme D fails, it may also be discarded, though Dr. Klotzbach isn’t setting any deadlines.

Even a more-accurate seasonal forecast is of questionable utility. AccuWeather.com makes its own seasonal forecasts, and trumpeted in a recent press release that it beat the Colorado State team and other entrants in forecasting accuracy this year. Nonetheless, Ken Reeves, AccuWeather.com’s director of forecasting operations, told me, “We’re not really big fans of the seasonal number games.” What really matters, he says, is “whether they make landfall, and how strong they are at landfall.””

--This article thanks to Carl Bialik

Now, whether or not you believe these forecasters are accurate or not will determine how much you will believe their predictions below:

“The 2012 hurricane season promises to be less active than normal, and close to half as active as last year, when 20 tropical cyclones, seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes were recorded, according to a forecast released today by the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project. Forecasters Philip Klotzbach and William Gray predict the 2012 season, which begins June 1, will have 4 hurricanes, compared with an average of 6.5 hurricanes between 1981 and 2010, and 10 named storms, compared with an average of 12.

The forecasters predict that two of the hurricanes will be major storms, ranked as Category 3 or higher, with winds greater than 111 mph, which is just about average. But there will only be a total of three days when hurricanes will have that major storm status, compared with an average of 3.9 days.

The duo's April 2011 forecast called for nine hurricanes, of which five would be major, and 16 named storms.

The chance of a major hurricane making landfall in the United States this year is about 80 percent of the average, and the total tropical cyclone activity will be only 75 percent of the long term average.

"Although that is welcome news for the Gulf Coast, it certainly is not a signal for us to let our guard down," said Jefferson Parish President John Young. "Rather, our citizens should continue to make preparations for the upcoming hurricane season since any major storm can cause catastrophic property devastation and loss of human life."

In making their forecast, Klotzbach and Gray are only comparing their predicted storm activity to 29 years of hurricane records. Last year, the pair compared their predictions against a 50-year storm history from 1950 to 2000.

Under the 50-year scenario, there was an average 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes.

The forecasting duo credit a combination of cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and an expected return to El Nino warmer than normal surface water conditions in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean for the reduced tropical storm activity.

The lower Atlantic water temperatures make it more difficult for storms to form, as does higher air pressures in that region that the forecasters say will occur this summer and fall.

The El Nino conditions historically have prompted greater wind shear in the upper atmosphere in the Atlantic, which tends to blow the tops off of thunderstorms, again making it more difficult for hurricanes to form.

In predicting a return to El Nino conditions in the Pacific, however, the forecasters are a bit ahead of the official National Weather Service forecast.

The service's Climate Prediction Center on Monday agreed that a two-year stretch of La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific, representing cooler than normal surface water temperatures, has weakened. But the center's prediction only calls for a change to neutral conditions, neither cooler nor warmer, by April, with a 40 percent chance of it remaining neutral through December, compared to a 38 percent chance of turning to warmer El Nino conditions.”

--This article thanks to Greater New Orleans

I personally think that the forecasters are probably close in their predictions. They’ve done plenty of research and devote their time to this. But after all, the weather can be pretty unpredictable so who knows how the hurricane season will really turn out this year.