Mild Winter, But Severe Spring?

With the mild winter that has almost passed us, there have been concerns that spring will also be unusual. We haven’t had this mild of a winter in a while so no one really knows what this upcoming spring will bring to the United States.

Last year in 2011, there were a record number of tornados during tornado season. 1,709 tornados were reported last year just falling short of the record of 1,817 in 2004. It even exceeded the average number of tornados in the past decade of 1,300. These tornados were cause by a very strong La Nina.

La Nina is a weather phenomenon. Basically, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean drop below normal temperatures. This causes a very strong jet stream which is a main factor in severe weather.

While normally tornados hit the “Tornado Alley” of Mississippi and Alabama as well as Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Last year, however, most tornados hit below the Tornado Alley. Tornados frequently hit Texas and Kansas during last spring because warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico clashed with the dry air from the Rockies.

It is expected that the Gulf of Mexico will have warmed than normal temperature again this year. It’s very probable that this humid are will cause super cell tornados and severe storms. However, the La Nina seems to be weakening and will further weaken as we enter the 2012 spring. Since there will only be the dry humid air coming from the Gulf, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan are expected to be hit more than the states further south.

However, because of this mild winter, there hasn’t been much snowfall. Thanks to this, flooding won’t be as big of a problem as it was in 2011. It is very dry around the Great Lakes so spring flooding isn’t expected to be a problem. The Mississippi River is actually dry enough that it is expected to stay dry and have a 20 to 30 percent chance below average of reaching the flood stage this spring.

Not only is spring expected to bring many tornados, but it is also predicted that it will be the worst allergy season in 10 years. Because of the mild winter, people will allergies have had to take medicine earlier than usual. Pollen will be coming earlier producing higher pollen counts and more annoying allergies.